The tech bubble burst in 2001. The housing bubble burst in 2007. The dollar is prevented from falling further by all the foreign debt holders who would like to cash out but can't because it would cause a panic on the dollar and a subsequent collapse of the value of their holdings. The Fed is hinting at lower interest rates to free up some capital.What we need, of course, is another bubble to obscure the housing pop. For a fascinating and likely prescient article on what lies ahead, I recommend you read "The Next Bubble" by Eric Janszen in the February 2008 issue of Harper's Magazine, available at your local newsstand (although you should really be a subscriber). Janszen sees in the sudden hype over alternative and green energy initiatives to modify tax laws and create new financial instruments the creation of the next bubble, and my aim is this time to get in early, not be greedy, and bug out with a nice gain, even if it's quite modest by the standards of most Wall Street types.
I'm thinking of European alternative energy companies so that at least the investments and returns are in more stable Euros, and also because the Europeans seem to be much more serious about the technology. My suspicion is demand in this country will drive a serious importation of Euro-tech equipment and software.
Forgive me for writing of economic matters--they're pretty dull--but Janszen's article really got me thinking about how to profit from these tulip-bulb manias rather than just watching them from the sidelines. I got burned a little in the tech meltdown, but knew better than to have anything to do with the real estate insanity theses last few years, despite being a little tempted by the ridiculous gains that were made by those who got in and then out in the meaty part of that inflated curve.
We're in a deeply disturbing cycle of denial and unreasonable optimism as each "next new thing" arises and sucks yet more wealth from the working classes into the tax-favored holdings of the few who know how to play the game, and who, in fact, control the game. I don't think it's any accident that economic education is wholly absent from the public school curricula.
Read the article. Read it twice. Think it over. If possible, play the game with the odds on your side.
2 comments:
Oh oh oh! Now we REALLY have to do lunch. I just became an investor (hee!) thanks to a family friend of mine insisting that I educate myself about money...please keep posting economics/investment stuff. I've only just dipped my little toe in, but I'm really struggling to understand how this all works.
--Brooke
Good for you! At your young age, you're already ahead of the game.
As for lunch, anytime--I won't offer advice (always a bad idea) BUT I can offer my experiences and hard-won perspective on what separates suckers from survivors in a game that's pretty well rigged to keep wealth in the hands of the wealthy. For the rest of us, it's just a matter of remaining calm and not too greedy and even, dare I say, acting morally.
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